Massachusetts 10th
Sep/10/10 09:12 AM
Politico recently compiled a list of House seats that are up for grabs this November and could lead the path to a Republican takeover of Congress. In the article they designate three types of races for Republicans to take control: must-wins, majority-makers, and landsliders.
My Massachusetts district (10th) shows up on the list as a landslider, meaning “a tough climb for GOP candidates, because of either the strength of the Democratic incumbent or the partisan tilt of the seat”. It goes on to say, “If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, a wave election is unfolding”.
The 10th district is the only competitive Congressional district in Massachusetts, both because the current hack-incumbent Delahunt decided to retire rather than face this unfriendly political environment and because it is the most conservative district in the state according to the Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index). Additionally, Senator Scott Brown won his highest percentage of the vote here, 60%.
At first I was surprised by the “landslide” district label. Based on conversations with people in the area (customers at work, family, friends, people at the gym, overheard conversations around town, etc. etc.), yard signs, bumper stickers and the like, I would think that the Republican candidate would definitely be favored to win, thus at least deserving a “majority-maker” tag from Politico. However, the Republican ticket is more complicated this year than it ought to be, endangering what should be a relatively easy pick-up for Republicans. The leading candidates all come with significant baggage, which threatens to distract from the real issues in the race.
Jeff Perry, who has raised the most money and picked up endorsements from Scott Brown and Mitt Romney, was involved in a strip-search scandal of a teenager when he was a police officer earlier in his career. Additionally, he posted credit for a degree from a non-existent online university on his website during his race for state congress a few years ago, thus calling into question his honesty and credibility. Joe Malone, who is from Scituate, was Massachusetts’ Auditor in the 1990s. While he enacted successful changes during his tenure, an employee stole $10 million in state money on his watch, which he claims to have had no knowledge of. The other two candidates, Ray Kaspercowicz and Robert Hayden, have raised almost nothing and don’t really have a chance in the September 14th primary.
All of this is a shame, since their likely Democratic opponent Norfolk County DA William Keating should be a relatively easy target given the current anti-incumbent mood and Keating’s long political career and now-unpopular political positions.
The Republican candidates have sharply criticized each other leading up to the primary and have spent valuable campaign cash. This, and voters’ understandable uneasiness with the history of whichever candidate wins in the primary next week, threatens the vote. Dismayed voters will doom the GOP’s chances of success. If this is the case, Keating and his cronies will gather up their union minions and sweep the polls.
Given this situation, I understand Politico’s assessment of the race. Deep down though, I’m confident that conservative and independent voters will look at their Democratic alternative, move on from the primary and vote for the political values they want sent to Washington. In that case, I can’t wait to see that “election wave” roll on through the country.
My Massachusetts district (10th) shows up on the list as a landslider, meaning “a tough climb for GOP candidates, because of either the strength of the Democratic incumbent or the partisan tilt of the seat”. It goes on to say, “If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, a wave election is unfolding”.
The 10th district is the only competitive Congressional district in Massachusetts, both because the current hack-incumbent Delahunt decided to retire rather than face this unfriendly political environment and because it is the most conservative district in the state according to the Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index). Additionally, Senator Scott Brown won his highest percentage of the vote here, 60%.
At first I was surprised by the “landslide” district label. Based on conversations with people in the area (customers at work, family, friends, people at the gym, overheard conversations around town, etc. etc.), yard signs, bumper stickers and the like, I would think that the Republican candidate would definitely be favored to win, thus at least deserving a “majority-maker” tag from Politico. However, the Republican ticket is more complicated this year than it ought to be, endangering what should be a relatively easy pick-up for Republicans. The leading candidates all come with significant baggage, which threatens to distract from the real issues in the race.
Jeff Perry, who has raised the most money and picked up endorsements from Scott Brown and Mitt Romney, was involved in a strip-search scandal of a teenager when he was a police officer earlier in his career. Additionally, he posted credit for a degree from a non-existent online university on his website during his race for state congress a few years ago, thus calling into question his honesty and credibility. Joe Malone, who is from Scituate, was Massachusetts’ Auditor in the 1990s. While he enacted successful changes during his tenure, an employee stole $10 million in state money on his watch, which he claims to have had no knowledge of. The other two candidates, Ray Kaspercowicz and Robert Hayden, have raised almost nothing and don’t really have a chance in the September 14th primary.
All of this is a shame, since their likely Democratic opponent Norfolk County DA William Keating should be a relatively easy target given the current anti-incumbent mood and Keating’s long political career and now-unpopular political positions.
The Republican candidates have sharply criticized each other leading up to the primary and have spent valuable campaign cash. This, and voters’ understandable uneasiness with the history of whichever candidate wins in the primary next week, threatens the vote. Dismayed voters will doom the GOP’s chances of success. If this is the case, Keating and his cronies will gather up their union minions and sweep the polls.
Given this situation, I understand Politico’s assessment of the race. Deep down though, I’m confident that conservative and independent voters will look at their Democratic alternative, move on from the primary and vote for the political values they want sent to Washington. In that case, I can’t wait to see that “election wave” roll on through the country.
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